Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-13 2.138373 2.267053 2.402698 2.556901 2.728028 2.912918 3.128869
2025-07-20 1.978732 2.160325 2.361449 2.602812 2.887456 3.216187 3.630190
2025-07-27 1.878103 2.092742 2.338924 2.646321 3.026034 3.488462 4.108845
2025-08-03 1.773211 2.005200 2.278169 2.629322 3.078906 3.650192 4.458188
2025-08-10 1.687714 1.931547 2.224540 2.610989 3.121226 3.794404 4.793780
2025-08-17 1.611295 1.862425 2.169504 2.583185 3.144088 3.909147 5.096470
2025-08-24 1.544397 1.800317 2.118011 2.553995 3.159323 4.010433 5.387654
2025-08-31 1.498457 1.761491 2.092959 2.556433 3.215785 4.172870 5.793218
2025-09-07 1.462811 1.733465 2.079509 2.572282 3.290475 4.367279 6.278980
2025-09-14 1.410192 1.680660 2.030050 2.534184 3.282049 4.430762 6.545954
2025-09-21 1.361277 1.630542 1.981575 2.494080 3.266637 4.479944 6.792345
2025-09-28 1.313336 1.579808 1.929899 2.446194 3.235287 4.498901 6.982589
2025-10-05 1.295355 1.568956 1.932983 2.478795 3.332453 4.745395 7.676606
2025-10-12 1.281187 1.562512 1.941597 2.519635 3.445480 5.032422 8.526068
2025-10-19 1.268009 1.556662 1.950401 2.560710 3.561566 5.339020 9.506055
2025-10-26 1.238193 1.526606 1.923180 2.544593 3.579907 5.463773 10.082258
2025-11-02 1.209855 1.497610 1.896228 2.527216 3.594322 5.581885 10.675364
2025-11-09 1.180563 1.466321 1.864700 2.500855 3.590800 5.663229 11.192851
2025-11-16 1.152499 1.435922 1.833362 2.473170 3.582757 5.734068 11.703556
2025-11-23 1.134267 1.418915 1.821117 2.475483 3.628667 5.923805 12.648096
2025-11-30 1.120414 1.407685 1.816943 2.490515 3.698726 6.175162 13.907224
2025-12-07 1.093728 1.377226 1.782823 2.454374 3.670160 6.201376 14.385889
2025-12-14 1.067721 1.347136 1.748394 2.416311 3.635581 6.210213 14.809345